Thursday, May 24, 2007

Its Payback Time

The cannibalism of Lakas by Kampi just before the elections has left a scar in their coalition. Local candidates of the two were pitted against each other and some Lakas members had no savory words for their supposed to be allies. The rift between the two had left a deep wound that cannot easily be healed.

Although the administration may have won the majority in the lower house, GMA cannot be complacent as their coalition is on the rocks. Now that the focus of the people is on the senatorial canvass, her political advisers will have to repair whatever damage had been left by the rift.

The answer is the renewal of their push for charter change. GMA was able to get the attention of her cohorts in the lower house when she dangled the cha-cha carrot. With JdV getting a fresh mandate, a new battle is emerging between Lakas and Kampi. The fight for the house leadership will be a hotly contested one.

Should JdV lose the lower house to Villafuerte, it could widen the rift between Lakas and Kampi. GMA will be left standing on very shaky ground. JdV can easily turn his back on her and her impeachment can very well push through this year. Will she gamble and see what happens next? Knowing how wily she is, for sure she would not blindly step into the unknown.

Will a renewed push for cha-cha do the job? Would the Lakas be stupid enough to believe her again? GMA showed Lakas what she is capable of and Lakas should now consider its options. But JdV is also politically savvy and could may very well corner GMA. Its going to be a battle of concessions. Should GMA go too far, Lakas may just go with the opposition and hang her out to dry.

The untenable position Gloria is in could spell her downfall. This will bring us back to the Cha-cha. Now more than ever, with a seemingly hostile senate, Gloria will have to rein in the Lakas in the lower house to save her skin. She will be hard-pressed to push for Cha-cha. This is the only thing that could hold their shaky coalition together.

After the smoke of the recent elections clears but with no time to spare, the administration will have to muster the numbers and press for the shift to a parliamentary system. Gloria will have to pay through her teeth as the rift will surely hit her hard.

The next few weeks will be crucial for JdV and GMA. Niceties will not work this time and the day of reckoning is upon them. Will they square off? Who between the two political abominations will survive? I'd love to see Kampi and Lakas go at each other's neck. They brought it upon themselves and the stronger predator will reap the rewards of its labor.

Its payback time for Gloria. How she will pay for her party's cannibalism of Lakas will be something to look forward to.